Sunday, May 10, 2009

The Greater Fool Theory


In case you weren't aware of the Greater Fool Theory of investing, it goes something like this: As big a fool as you might have been to buy something that is over-priced, over-bought, and purchased as you jumped on that train, not realizing that the end of the line is only one stop away, there surely is a bigger fool that will buy it from you.
In the case of this recent 9 week, unabated run of the S&P, this chart says it all - if you are buying here, then you are, in fact, that Greater Fool.
The

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Draw a line @ 655


Trees take a long time to grow, as do long-term fibonacci-based support & resistance. Truth be told, Fibonacci the mathematician took some of his ideas from measurements taken from tree limbs (no, this is not an urban myth) - i.e. spacing, distance from each other, etc.
The Markets made a double bottom in 1980 & 1982, and then a double top in 2000 & 2007. The 61.8% retracement of this 27 year move is 655. So look for a test of this, as well as perhaps something of significance happening (in the news?)when we are around this level.